What Israel fears most about Syria - with Kevork Almassian

A Tel-Aviv think tank lays out Israeli strategy to deal with a refurbished Syrian military

Syrian journalist and founder of Syriana Analysis, Kevork Almassian, joins me to discuss a new report published by Tel-Aviv think thank - The Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. The report (in Hebrew) is titled ‘Strengthening the Syrian Army - a threat to Israel.

The INSS describes its mission on its English website:

The Institute for National Security Studies launches and engages in innovative, relevant, high-quality research that shapes the public discourse of issues on Israel’s national security agenda, and provides policy analysis and recommendations to decision makers, public leaders, and the strategic community, both in Israel and abroad. As part of its mission, it is committed to encourage new ways of thinking and expand the traditional contours of establishment analysis. (Emphasis added)

The report begins:

After more than a decade of the Syrian Army being busy with the ‘civil war’, it is now increasingly turning its attention towards the old enemy – Israel – and is working to regain its power lost during the bloody war. How does the army – strengthen on the conventional and unconventional plane – and what should Israel do?

In the past year the Syrian Army which was severely damaged during the “civil war” has been undergoing accelerated rehabilitation, in parallel with the country's civilian reconstruction, and necessarily at its expense. Although the Syrian army faces many challenges and is still far from being a threat to Israel, this article examines its intensification efforts, which already present a potential for a strategic threat that must be recognized: In the conventional plane – missile capabilities, as UAVs and air defense; and in the unconventional plane – chemical weapons attack capability; and nuclear capabilities may be developed.

Finally, the article will be summarized in recommendations to Israel in view of these threats, mainly defining red lines for Syrian intensification, Incorporating the campaign activity war between the wars 

The report is well worth reading for a far-reaching insight into the workings of Israeli Intelligence and Military and how strategy is analysed and concluded. Kevork and I have covered the main points in our discussion but I will be revisiting over the next few days.

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