I would like to share the following analysis also, from an online source which has been confirmed by other sources in Lebanon:

The Nabatieh Sector: The Occupation’s Graveyard — Talal Nahle Wednesday, May 27, 2026 (Day 89 of the War)

The clock is ticking rapidly toward a comprehensive explosion, while American promises of an imminent peace fade away. Trump and Rubio are selling the illusion of a “great deal” to pacify the oil markets (which are hovering around $98 per barrel of Brent crude). Meanwhile, the bitter truth that Washington evades is that the “frozen Iranian funds” remain a card for blackmail, and that Tehran—through the words of its President and the Supreme Leader’s advisor—has laid all doubts to rest:

“The Strait of Hormuz is the only guarantor, and there is no trust in American signatures.”

However, while diplomacy drowns in a mire of vetoes (no to surrendering uranium, no to ending the war without resolving the Lebanon file), Israel has opened the gates of hell upon itself by expanding its ground operations toward the “red line” in the Nabatieh District (southern Lebanon). Here, we are not talking about a traditional clash; rather, we are facing a scenario where the occupation army is being dragged into the “greatest swamp,” passionately planned for by Hezbollah since the beginning of the war.

Here is a breakdown of the dimensions of this grinding ground battle, and how Nabatieh and its surroundings will become an “open graveyard” that brings down the Israeli strategy of attrition:

First: The Nabatieh Swamp... The Strategic Trap and the Battle of Kornet and Optics

The expanding Israeli offensive toward Nabatieh is not a tactical advance, but a suicidal rush into scorched earth that has been prepared with extreme precision: 1. The Land of Ambushes and Booby-Traps: Hezbollah has not taken the stance of a random defender; it has lured the Israeli army into a fertile environment for the “arts of urban warfare.”

Nabatieh and its surroundings consist of a complex network of built-up and open terrains. Hezbollah, experienced in rigging explosive devices, setting complex ambushes, and launching heavy “Burkan” rockets, possesses a deadly grip in utilizing guided “Kornet” systems.

2. The Fall of the “Aerial Evacuation” Card:

In this complex environment, the occupation army will face a double nightmare: extreme difficulty in advancing, and an even greater impossibility in evacuation operations. Any attempt to summon helicopters to rescue the dead or wounded (or even potential captives) will place them directly in the aerial “hunting net” of MANPADS (man-portable air-defense systems) and the party’s suicide drones.

3. The Israeli Tactic of Preemptive Encirclement:

The enemy realizes the magnitude of this inferno, which is why it is resorting to a “flank security” strategy prior to deep penetration. Its attempt to reach the commanding heights surrounding the city (westward toward Choukine and Mayfadoun, eastward toward Kfar Tibnit and Kfar Remmen, and southward toward Arnoun and Yohmor), while focusing on protecting its northern flank toward Sohmor and Maydoun to reach Rihan and Sejoud (the highest vantage point), is a desperate attempt to create fire cover preceding the infantry and armored incursions.

Second: The Battlefield Belies Claims of Advance... The “Armor Incinerators” Speak

Field figures and facts over the past 48 hours (especially in Zawtar El Charkieh, considered the southern gate to Nabatieh) demolish the Israeli narrative: 1. “Ababil” Brings Down the Armor Doctrine: The Israeli army’s justification for its incursion as being “to solve the drone problem” is strategically foolish. Suicide drones (equipped with fiber-optic technology and thermal sights) excel whenever forces draw closer and become exposed targets.

The Toll of Tactical Fracturing:

Yesterday and today’s statements (32 statements yesterday) documented a true massacre of armor. Seven Merkava tanks were destroyed or disabled in a single day (bringing the documented total to 259 tanks), in addition to the destruction of Humvees, Namer APCs, D9 bulldozers, Iron Dome launchers (Branit Barracks), and command headquarters. Thwarting incursion attempts at the riverbed in Zawtar (luring the enemy into the scout complex and engaging at point-blank range before forcing them to retreat) proves that the resistance’s forward defense lines remain cohesive and lethal.

Third: Retaliatory Annihilation and the Bankruptcy of Israeli Options

As a result of this horrific operational failure, Israel has resorted to a “scorched earth” tactic to compensate for its armored losses: The Belt of Death: The recording of 170 airstrikes and 25 drone strikes, the commission of massacres (31 martyrs in an initial toll, alongside the continued obstruction of civil defense in Maarakeh), and the issuance of hysterical evacuation warnings targeting 50 towns, the entire city of Nabatieh, and the surroundings of Tyre, all reflect the desire of Netanyahu and Smotrich to destroy the urban infrastructure in retaliation against the party’s drones.

Division and Trial Postponements:

The sharp dispute between Netanyahu (who is searching for solutions to protect forces) and Smotrich (who demands the demolition of Beirut), coupled with the cancellation of Netanyahu’s trial session for “security and diplomatic” reasons, reflects the magnitude of the leadership dilemma facing the ruling coalition amid its failure on all fronts (Gaza, Lebanon, Iran). Conclusion and Strategic Outlook (The Fall of the Illusion):

We are facing a scenario of the greatest existential clash, in which the occupier’s military machine will break before what Hezbollah has been longing for since the beginning of the battle.

The Most Likely Scenario for the Coming Phase:

American diplomacy will continue to stall and maneuver (as Senator Cory Booker noted, Trump’s approach has strengthened Iran’s position). Meanwhile, the Lebanese battlefield, specifically in the Nabatieh sector and its surroundings, will witness the fiercest of battles.

We should not be surprised by the sheer scale of destruction that Israeli aviation will inflict on southern villages to present a “façade of victory” to its public. However, in return, the world must prepare for an “Israeli military demographic shock.” The death toll of the occupation army will multiply dramatically, and scenes of burning Merkavas will become a daily occurrence.

Even more dangerous is that Nabatieh’s environment and its terrain, rigged with deep ambushes, may result in Israeli “captives” falling into the grip of the resistance. This is the scenario that will turn the negotiating tables upside down, forcing Trump and Netanyahu to halt the war on the terms of the victorious Axis.

****

I do not use a paywall for any of my work but please do consider subscribing to my Substack or making a one-off donation to support my work. Thank you to all who already do! xx

One-off donation to buy me a coffee

It was a huge privilege to sit down with John Helmer to discuss the two summits in Beijing. The first, Donald Trump and his entourage of tech billionaires and rising stars in the Trump administration, the second, President Putin with his team.

Prior to Putin’s arrival, Dimitry Peskov announced:

“The [Beijing] agenda is clear: bilateral relations come first, including our special, privileged partnership and impressive trade and economic cooperation, with its annual value consistently above $ 200 billion. Of course, active discussions of international affairs will also be on the agenda. [On President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing] we are closely following reports in the media, and we also expect to get information straight from the horse’s mouth [sic] once we are in China.”

Putin met with Peng Pai - ‘a citizen of the People’s Republic of China. The President had posed for a photograph with him in Beijing’s Beihai Park in July 2000, during his first state visit to China. Subsequently, Peng Pai developed an interest in Russian culture and science; he came to study at MADI, and after graduating, returned to China to work in his home province.’ Kremlin read out.

During the conversation, Putin said:

That said, our meeting today falls on a momentous date, but our friendship with China is not directed against anyone. We are not fighting anyone. We are simply pursuing our own interests and following our own development path. What is more, we are ready to cooperate with everyone, with all our global partners, including the United States.

How important is Iran in negotiations between China and the US? How important is Taiwan compared to Ukraine in the Putin-Xi discussions? We cover these questions and much more.

You can follow John at his website - Dances with Bears.

****

Once again if you enjoy my work, please do consider subscribing here or making a one off donation (link below). Thank you to all who do subscribe. x

Subscribe now

One off donation - buy me a coffee

If you enjoy my work, please do consider subscribing. You make my contributions possible if you do. Thank you

Subscribe now

One off donation to buy me a coffee

****

Please do consider subscribing to my Substack if you enjoy what I do. On the ground in the region bringing you the latest from the multiple, complex conflicts. Thank you xx

Subscribe now

One off donation - buy me a coffee

1: It is all about the oil - Trump and the US is determined to secure control over the global oil resources and economic land and maritime corridors.

2: The war against Iran is actually a stage in the war against Russia and China

3: ‘The World is a stage’ - the Islamic Revolution was stage managed by the CIA and Iran is part of the Global Mafia

4: Iran is genuinely a thorn in the side of the Global Mafia genocidaires and maintains a strategic independence in order to provide a meaningful alternative to the inhumane core ideology of the transnational ruling elites.

5: Wars are what sustain the Global Mafia economies and so perpetual war is the key to their success and supremacy.

As Prof. David Miller said on X today:

The bravery, compassion and sense of justice that drives the people of the Islamic Revolution is incomprehensible in many cultures today — especially those which have been humiliated by decades of Zionist penetration and subversion; the hegemony of American mass culture; and the rise of liberal individualism.

The IRGC is one of the only remaining — and most effective — poles of resistance against these forces, which is why it is demonised and why the Zionist regime in Britain seeks to proscribe it.

This was a reaction to seeing the following video - The untold stories of Iran’s IRGC missile unit soldier Hossein Mohammadi and his wife about his war injuries. [English subtitles]

You may disagree with our conclusions but I hope it has, at least, made it easier to understand the war from the perspective of the Iranian people fighting it.

****

I am so appreciative of the support of my subscribers and if you do find my work helpful and valuable please do consider subscribing or, alternatively, you can make a one-off payment to buy me a coffee. Thank you xx

Subscribe now

One Off Donation to buy me a coffee

****

Thank you for listening, watching, reading. If you consider my work valuable please do think about subscribing so I can do more of it. Thank you to all those who do contribute and support, you are very much appreciated. xx

One off donation to 'buy me a coffee'

Music track is from VETR - you can follow them on Telegram and YouTube

****

I will be working on the ground every week going forward and maintaining a ‘war diary’ of all my visits. Please do consider subscribing and supporting my work, your support is really essential. Thank you to all who already do. xx

One off donation - buy me a coffee

This was an open minded debate from people who are on the same page but who disagree on some aspects of the world war that is now playing out. Thank you to Bett Beat for hosting.

****

Please do consider subscribing. This work cannot happen without your support xx

Subscribe now

One off donation to buy me a coffee ,

One narrative still persists in Western independent media circles and “liberal” Zionist spheres of influence - that ‘Israel’ helped create and fund Hamas in Gaza. I sit down with regional analyst Myriam Charabaty to unpack the history of Hamas and the very real complexities that surround the journey of the Palestinian resistance faction from Egypt to Palestine.

Myriam examines the internal conflicts and diverse opinions and ideologies within the leadership to paint a far more multi-layered picture of who is Hamas and how their role has both been restricted and controlled by the Zionists at certain times and how resistance actions and statements have forced ‘Israel’ to accommodate the resistance beyond their comfort zone. This is a hugely complicated subject and not one that can be condensed into a convenient ‘conspiracy’ narrative that denies agency to the armed resistance in Palestine and ignores the history, the culture and the environment in which Hamas is forced to operate.

I also refer you to a very in depth analysis by Substack author Mujamma Haraket:

Excerpt: In this article, I set out to dispel the narrative(s)—initially proffered by Yasser Arafat in the late 1980s and early 1990s but then popularized beyond intra-Palestine politics by liberal zionist journalists before being instrumentalized by the zionist entity’s intelligence apparatus—that the zionist entity “created”, “helped create”, or “funded” Hamas.[1] This set of claims enjoys deep popularity amongst would-be supporters of the Palestinian liberation struggle who, unwittingly, are repeating the choice framework of the zionist intelligence services and the Palestinian Authority’s Abu Mazen (viz., Mahmoud Abbas) who has pragmatically instrumentalized this claim to delegitimize the Hamas movement’s indigenous, local, and grassroots. Insofar as political science scholarship is concerned, this narrative also sports proponents like Beverly Milton-Edwards, who first proffers this thesis in her 1996 book, Islamic Politics in Palestine (London: Tauris Academic Studies) and repeats it in her co-authored 2010 text with Stephen Farrell, Hamas: The Islamic Resistance Movement (Cambridge: Polity Press) and the two’s more recent, revised book, Hamas: The Quest for Power (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2024).

You can follow Myriam on Substack and X. We will also be, shortly, starting a project - Beyond Sykes Picot (BSP) - the greater resistance project.

****

Please do consider subscribing to my Substack. Thank you to all who already do support my work. xx

Subscribe now

One off donation - buy me a coffee

Are we witnessing the start of a massive regional war? From the escalating Lebanon crisis to Syria's collapse, discover the untold truth behind the headlines and the severe risks to the global economy.

Welcome back to Deep Dive Perspective, your trusted London-based podcast and YouTube show. Today, we unravel the complex geopolitics of the Middle East. With the Lebanon crisis intensifying and Syria’s collapse shifting borders, is a regional war inevitable? Investigative journalists Vanessa Beeley and Kit Klarenberg, alongside geopolitical analyst Dr. Mohammad Haidar, join us to expose the underlying strategies driving this conflict.

We analyze the devastating impacts of the Lebanon crisis on civilians and trace the economic shockwaves hitting global markets. If vital trade routes close, the resulting energy shortages and inflation will drastically affect the global economy. How are Western powers navigating Syria’s collapse, and what does this mean for international stability? As the threat of a regional war looms, this episode provides the critical context mainstream media often misses.

Don't rely on fragmented news. Empower yourself with independent analysis. Please hit the like button, share your thoughts in the comments, and subscribe to our channel for more crucial geopolitical updates!

YouTube Channel of DDP here.

****

Thank you for listening, watching and reading. If you do appreciate my work, please do consider subscribing. Your support will help me continue doing what I do. Thank you to all those who already do support and subscribe xx

One off donation - buy me a coffee

Subscribe now

This conversation will, I hope, give deeper connection the spiritual thread that runs through the Resistance Axis, from Iran to Palestine.

For those that are interested, below is a short explainer video about Imam Hussein and the decisive battle of Karbala and the core ideology at the heart of the Islamic Republic of Iran:

****

Thank you for listening, watching and reading. If you do appreciate my work, please do consider subscribing. Your support will help me continue doing what I do. Thank you to all those who already do support and subscribe xx

One off donation - buy me a coffee

At the moment “Israel” has issued an evacuation warning for central Beirut and has just bombed the Lebanese University. Marwa Osman writes:

Two martyrs a few moments ago at the Lebanese state University. Dr. Hussein Bazzi and Dr. Mortada Sorour, have risen at the Faculty of Sciences campus in Hadath.

In yet another chilling chapter of this terrorist aggressiin by Israsl, two academics, men whose lives were devoted to knowledge, teaching, and shaping future generations, were killed inside the very halls of a university. A place meant to nurture minds has been turned into a scene of bloodshed.

Universities are supposed to be sanctuaries of learning, protected spaces under international law, far removed from the violence of war. Targeting individuals within an academic institution is not merely an attack on two lives; it is an assault on education itself, on intellect, and on the idea that knowledge should remain above the battlefield.

By any reasonable moral or legal standard, the killing of civilians, especially academics inside a university campus, constitutes a war crime. Yet, as we have seen repeatedly, outrage in the so-called international community appears to be selective.

Had this happened anywhere else, headlines would be filled with condemnation, emergency debates, and calls for accountability. But when the victims are in Lebanon at the hands of terrorist Israel, or anywhere within the geography of the Global South, the reaction is often reduced to silence, vague statements, or worse... justification.

The video below shows people trying to leave the area after the Zionists gave barely any advance notice. You can see the area is packed just before Iftar which means the potential for maximum civilian casualties.

UPDATE: Video of the Zionist strike in Bachoura. “Israel” is extending the aggression beyond the southern suburbs and closer to central Beirut during Iftar preparation and shopping time.

Marwa writes on the internal situation inside Lebanon:

A serious political and institutional confrontation appears to be unfolding within the state structure of Lebanon, following reports that the head of the army, Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Rudolph Haykal, has refused to allow the military to be drawn into an internal confrontation.

According to circulating statements below attributed to Haykal, the army will not participate in any move that could ignite internal conflict or fracture Lebanese society. The position is widely interpreted as a rejection of pressure from the current political leadership to confront Hezbollah domestically.

This stance triggered alarm among factions within the current governing coalition. Political sources claim that external actors, particularly the United States, had already begun discussing three potential replacements for Haykal should he refuse to comply with demands to escalate internally.

If these reports are accurate, Lebanon may be entering a rare and extremely dangerous constitutional moment, where the chain of command between the political leadership and the military leadership becomes contested.

Haykal’s refusal effectively signals that the army leadership believes any internal military confrontation would risk national collapse, particularly at a time when the country faces:

▫️Continued threats from the Israeli military across the southern frontier with Israel

▫️The presence of armed terrorist groups along the eastern frontier in Syria under the command of Abu Mohammad al-Julani

So, opening a domestic military front under such conditions would risk simultaneous internal and external destabilization.

But what does the Lebanese constitution actually say?

Under the Lebanese constitutional framework:

▫️The army is formally subordinate to the civilian government, specifically the Council of Ministers.

▫️The commander of the army does not possess independent political authority to challenge the government.

▫️Any military intervention in politics, including a coup, would technically be unconstitutional.

However, Lebanon’s political reality has historically been more complex. The army has often acted as a stabilizing institution rather than a purely political instrument, particularly when the political class itself is deeply divided or externally influenced.

If Haykal continues to resist political orders that could spark internal conflict, several scenarios could unfold.

Scenario 1: Institutional compromise

The most stable outcome would be a political climbdown by the government, quietly shelving the idea of confrontation with Hezbollah and allowing the army to maintain its neutral posture.

In this case, Haykal remains in command, the army preserves national unity and political actors avoid pushing the state toward collapse.

Scenario 2: Attempted dismissal of the army commander

If the government attempts to remove Haykal and appoint a more compliant figure, the situation becomes significantly more dangerous.

Possible consequences include:

▫️Resistance within the officer corps

▫️Refusal by parts of the army to recognize a new commander

▫️A crisis of legitimacy within the military institution

Scenario 3: Military intervention

The most extreme possibility would be a preemptive move by sections of the army leadership to prevent what they see as national destabilization.

Historically, militaries in fragile states have justified such moves as necessary to preserve national unity and prevent civil war.

However, such an outcome would immediately trigger constitutional crisis, international pressure and internal political confrontation.

The most dangerous outcome would be division within the army.

Lebanon’s greatest nightmare would be a split inside the Lebanese Armed Forces themselves.

If rival political factions begin pulling officers and units in different directions, the country could face a scenario where two military chains of command emerge, units align with opposing political forces and the army fractures along sectarian or political lines.

That situation would echo the early stages of the Lebanese civil war, when the national army disintegrated and multiple armed forces emerged.

The deeper issue here would be political legitimacy. What makes the current tension particularly volatile is the perception among many Lebanese that parts of the political class are aligning themselves more closely with foreign agendas than with national stability.

When political actors are seen as willing to:

▫️push the army into fighting fellow citizens

▫️weaken national defense structures

▫️or coordinate security agendas with external adversaries

By doing so, they risk undermining the legitimacy of the state itself.

No army can remain cohesive if it is ordered to prioritize political rivalries over national security.

Lebanon now appears to be standing at a critical institutional crossroads.

Either political leaders step back from escalating internal confrontation, preserving the army as a unified national institution, or continued pressure could trigger a dangerous chain reaction inside the military establishment itself.

In a country already facing economic collapse, regional war risks, and political paralysis, the fragmentation of the army would be one of the most destabilizing developments imaginable.

For now, the position taken by Commander Rudolph Haykal appears to be a clear signal:

the army does not want to be the spark that ignites another Lebanese internal war.

Whether the political leadership listens, or attempts to force the issue, will determine how dangerous the coming weeks may become.

****

One off donation - buy me a coffee

Follow Jerm at UK Column

****

Please do consider subscribing. I am in the region. Lebanon is again under attack. Your support is essential. Thank you.

Subscribe now

Or buy me a coffee. One off donation

The Nasheed from the introduction can be found in full here.

They Rise to the Challenge

“The brave heroes of the tribe have given birth to you.”

“They have made you the flagbearer.”

“It is you who has imprisoned the forces of darkness.”

“Be determined; breath through the thorns.”

“If the flag is in your hands now, the promise of Truth is one roar away from you.”

A beautiful Nasheed by the Mehrab Surood group about how the brave and revolutionary Iranian people have risen up to the challenge for the sake of defending and strengthening Islam and Humanity; past, present, and future.

You can follow Ehsan on X or subscribe to his YouTube channel.

If what I do is helpful please do consider subscribing to my Substack or making a one-off donation. Your support is what enables me to do what I do. Thank you.

Subscribe now

One off donation to Buy Me a Coffee

Last week, Hebrew media outlets said the comprehensive agreement between Kurdish-led Syrian SDF factions and the Syrian government to integrate with the Syrian army is not an arrangement between two equal parties.

“This is a Kurdish submission to Ahmed al-Sharaa that happened after government supporters dismantled the SDF from the inside, and brought several factions closer to the regime,” the Hebrew media wrote.

Earlier, US sources said Türkiye informed the US administration it supports a centralized Syrian state and rejects any Kurdish canton in the northeast.

In return, Israel’s government conveyed to Washington its opposition to a centralized Syria, preferring a federal model.

Sources said Netanyahu is angered by the outcome in northeastern Syria and considers US Special Envoy to Syria tom Barrack biased toward Ankara.

The Israeli circles see Türkiye as the ‘biggest winner’ from the collapse of the SDF.

Therefore, the Israeli government reiterated that it will not accept Turkish troop presence in Syria and insists on protecting Druze communities in southern Syria.

Also related: Infiltration by stealth to attempt to secure future settlement projects by proxy: Israel is going to appoint Major General Ghassan Alian as the first military liaison to Druze communities in Syria and Lebanon.

I know people are worried about the new age verification measures being introduced by Substack but please don’t just abandon the platform and the journalists you subscribe to, that is very much what they want you to do. Please do contact Substack directly to express your dissatisfaction. Only this way can we start to push back against this blanket capture of the information sphere to freeze out genuinely independent voices.

One Off Donation - Buy me a Coffee

Subscribe now

We discuss, the recent Mossad/CIA/MI6 riots in Iran that hijacked genuine labour movement protests that began in early January. We look at the sudden pivot back to a treacherous negotiation track by members of the Iranian government and discuss the changes in Iranian policy since the untimely death of former President Raisi. We also discuss the Russia/China misinformation online, the reality of relations between Iran and Russia/China and Iran’s policy of strategic independence. Our conversation delves deep into the Zionist/Western propaganda war, the capture of some minds among the youth in Iran and the dangers of what is perceived as isolationism. We dive briefly into what happened in Syria and how Iranians were affected by the fall of Damascus.

You can follow Ehsan on X and subscribe to his YouTube channel.

Ehsan referenced a 2005 article - Iran’s Long March which you can find here.

****

I know people are worried about the new age verification measures being introduced by Substack but please don’t just abandon the platform and the journalists you subscribe to, that is very much what they want you to do. Please do contact Substack directly to express your dissatisfaction. Only this way can we start to push back against this blanket capture of the information sphere to freeze out genuinely independent voices.

One Off Donation - Buy me a Coffee

Subscribe now

You can follow Setareh on X

Apologies for some sound issues - the internet in Iran is still not back to 100% yet.

****

I know people are worried about the new age verification measures being introduced by Substack but please don’t just abandon the platform and the journalists you subscribe to, that is very much what they want you to do. Please do contact Substack directly to express your dissatisfaction. Only this way can we start to push back against this blanket capture of the information sphere to freeze out genuinely independent voices.

One Off Donation - Buy me a Coffee

Subscribe now

The incoming new world disorder will be based on the model that Trump is attempting to roll out in Gaza and beyond with the Zionist blueprint for torture, abuse and murder. We do also talk about solutions and how we can manage the Trump-billionaire-Zionist overreach and acceleration of their globalist agenda.

I know people are worried about the new age verification measures being introduced by Substack but please don’t just abandon the platform and the journalists you subscribe to, that is very much what they want you to do. Please do contact Substack directly to express your dissatisfaction. Only this way can we start to push back against this blanket capture of the information sphere to freeze out genuinely independent voices.

One Off Donation - Buy me a Coffee

Subscribe now

****

I know people are worried about the new verification measures being introduced by Substack but please don’t just abandon the platform and the journalists you subscribe to, that is very much what they want you to do. Please do contact Substack directly to express your dissatisfaction. Only this way can we start to push back against this blanket capture of the information sphere to freeze out genuinely independent voices.

One Off Donation to Buy me a Coffee

Subscribe now

****

I know people are worried about the new verification measures being introduced by Substack but please don’t just abandon the platform and the journalists you subscribe to, that is very much what they want you to do. Please do contact Substack directly to express your dissatisfaction. Only this way can we start to push back against this blanket capture of the information sphere to freeze out genuinely independent voices.

One Off Donation to Buy me a Coffee

Subscribe now